Flagship Report

Constellation Energy (CEG) + Coherent Corp (COHR)

Nuclear Energy  |  Power Grid Constraints  |  Silicon Photonics

Sources: SEC EDGAR 10-K/10-Q filings, earnings call transcripts, company press releases, Utility Dive, S&P Global

1

Constellation Energy — Key Financials

Revenue
$25,533M
+8.3% YoY
Nuclear Fleet
21 Reactors
~22 GW capacity
Nuclear Gen.
182,690 GWh
94.7% cap. factor
Crane Restart
$1.6B
835 MW investment
DOE Loan
Up to $1.0B
37.5 bps, mat. 2055
Microsoft PPA
20 Years
835 MW
Meta PPA
20 Years
1,121 MW (Jun 2027)
PJM Capacity
$169.50
/MW-day (+445% YoY)
DC Usage Growth
+45%
2023→2025
Post-Calpine Fleet
~55 GW
$26.6B acquisition
2

Coherent Corp — Key Financials

Revenue
$5,810M
+23% YoY
Networking Seg.
$3,421M
+49% YoY
DC Transceiver B/B
>4x
Book-to-Bill
Non-GAAP EPS
$3.53
+191% YoY
CAPEX
$440.8M
FY2025
R&D Spend
$581.9M
10% of revenue
6" InP Advantage
>4x
chips/wafer, <50% cost
6" Wafer Starts
4x QoQ
Sep→Dec 2025
CY2026 Capacity
Booked Out
CY2027 filling fast
Leverage
1.7x
down from 2.4x
3

Revenue Breakdown by Segment

CEG Revenue Segments

Mid-Atlantic$7,920M
Midwest$5,620M
New York$4,210M
ERCOT$3,830M
Other Power Regions$2,410M
Other Revenues$1,543M

COHR Revenue Segments

Networking$3,421M
Materials$1,340M
Lasers$1,049M
4

Capital Expenditure & Strategic Investments

CEG Capital Deployment

Crane Restart$1.6B
Clinton/Dresden Relicensing$370M+
Byron/Braidwood Uprates+160 MW
Calpine Acquisition$26.6B

COHR Capital Deployment

FY2025 CAPEX$440.8M
R&D Investment$581.9M
SiC Joint Venture$1.0B
InP Capacity2x in 12 mo.
5

Management Commentary

Nuclear energy is the most valuable and important energy commodity in the world today.

Joe DominguezCEO, Constellation Energy — Q3 2025

Focusing just on the accounts we have continually served over the last three years, we have seen their usage in 2025 increase 45 percent compared to 2023.

Joe DominguezCEO, CEG — on data center demand

The path to new nuclear in many places is going to walk through Constellation.

Joe DominguezCEO, CEG

Most of calendar '26 is booked out and calendar '27 is filling very, very quickly.

Jim AndersonCEO, Coherent Corp — Q2 FY2026

I don't foresee supply-demand getting back in balance this calendar year or next.

Jim AndersonCEO, COHR — on InP laser supply

With Coherent, NVIDIA is pioneering next-generation silicon photonics to enable AI infrastructure at unprecedented scale, speed and energy efficiency.

Jensen HuangNVIDIA CEO
6

Key Risk Factors

CEG Risks

  • 1

    Crane restart execution — NRC approval and PJM interconnection are binary outcomes with no partial success scenario

  • 2

    Regulatory risk around nuclear fleet relicensing; Clinton and Dresden licenses expire and require NRC renewal

  • 3

    Integration risk from $26.6B Calpine acquisition — largest in company history, doubles fleet to ~55 GW

  • 4

    PJM capacity market reform uncertainty — current 445% price increase may not be sustained

  • 5

    Political/regulatory risk around nuclear energy policy at federal and state levels

COHR Risks

  • 1

    Customer concentration — top data center customers represent a large share of Networking revenue

  • 2

    Supply chain execution on 6-inch InP wafer transition — yield ramp is technically challenging

  • 3

    Silicon photonics technology risk — COHR is betting on integrated photonics via its NVIDIA partnership

  • 4

    Cyclicality in industrial laser and materials segments (41% of revenue) could offset networking growth

  • 5

    SiC joint venture ($1.0B) execution risk in a competitive market with multiple well-funded entrants

7

The Data Center Convergence Thesis

+45%
CEG DC Customer Usage Growth (2023→2025)
+36%
COHR DC Revenue Growth YoY
30 GW
PJM Forecast: New DC Power Demand by 2030

Nuclear PPAs (CEG) provide the clean baseload power. Optical transceivers and silicon photonics (COHR) provide the interconnect bandwidth. PJM's forecast calls for 30 GW of new data center power demand through 2030 — and even if that figure is overstated by 3–5×, as some industry participants suggest, it still implies sustained demand for both clean baseload generation and high-speed optical networking.

8

Verikal Assessment — Key Takeaways

1

CEG’s nuclear fleet generated 182.7 TWh of electricity at a 94.7% capacity factor, and it is now selling that power into a market where prices are rising sharply. On the PJM grid — the largest U.S. power grid operator, covering 13 states and Washington, D.C. — capacity prices (payments utilities receive just for having power plants ready to generate) rose 445% year-over-year, and day-ahead energy prices rose 49%. CEG has signed 20-year Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) with Microsoft and Meta — long-term contracts in which those companies agree to buy electricity at a set price for years — converting the fleet from an old-style commodity producer into contracted clean-energy infrastructure. The restart of the Crane nuclear plant ($1.6B for 835 MW) is an all-or-nothing risk: it either succeeds or fails, with no middle ground, and hinges on approval from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and connection to the PJM grid.

2

COHR’s Networking segment ($3.4B in revenue, +49% year-over-year) is supply-constrained, not demand-constrained — meaning the problem is not finding buyers, but making enough product to fill the orders already in hand. In Q2 FY2026, the book-to-bill ratio for data center transceivers (devices that send and receive data over fiber-optic cables at extreme speeds) exceeded 4×, meaning orders were coming in 4 times faster than COHR could ship products. The key bottleneck-release is the transition to 6-inch wafers of Indium Phosphide (InP), a semiconductor material used to make lasers for fiber-optic communication. This shift yields more than 4× the chips per wafer at less than 50% of the cost per chip. Calendar year 2026 production is largely booked. Management does not expect supply to catch up with demand in CY2026 or CY2027.

3

The three themes converge at the data center buildout. CEG’s data center customers increased their energy usage 45% over two years. COHR’s data center revenue grew 36% year-over-year. Nuclear PPAs (CEG) provide the power; optical transceivers and silicon photonics — technology that uses light instead of electricity to move data inside and between chips — (COHR) provide the interconnect bandwidth. PJM’s forecast calls for 30 GW of new data center power demand through 2030 — and even if that figure is overstated by 3–5×, as some industry participants suggest, it still implies sustained demand for both clean baseload generation and high-speed optical networking.

Sources & Methodology

All financial data sourced from SEC EDGAR (10-K, 10-Q filings), company earnings releases, earnings call transcripts, company press releases, Utility Dive, and S&P Global. Figures reflect the most recent reported period as of the report date. No forward projections or price targets are provided. Microsoft is referenced solely as a CEG Power Purchase Agreement counterparty and is not analyzed as an equity.